{"id":4468,"date":"2026-10-22T22:50:39","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T20:50:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/?p=4468"},"modified":"2026-10-22T22:54:05","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T20:54:05","slug":"the-prospect-of-a-new-us-iran-conflict-re-emerges-amid-uncertain-and-ill-defined-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/the-prospect-of-a-new-us-iran-conflict-re-emerges-amid-uncertain-and-ill-defined-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"The prospect of a new US\u2013Iran conflict re-emerges amid uncertain and ill-defined scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On 22 October, President Trump once again raised the prospect of a new military escalation, stating during a meeting with journalists that \u201csomething will happen fairly soon<\/a>\u201d. His remarks appeared to lend credence to information that had emerged in the preceding days regarding alleged preparations for a resumption of hostilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shortly afterwards, CBS heightened these concerns, reporting that anonymous Pentagon sources had allegedly confirmed the commencement of a substantial drawdown of military personnel from bases in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East<\/a>, as a precautionary measure against possible Iranian retaliation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The previous day, The New York Times<\/em> had reported that the United States and Israel were working on potential plans for an attack on Iran<\/a>. According to the newspaper, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had even sought to persuade Trump to launch an attack as early as October, only to be rebuffed by the US president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Verifying and assessing these reports is difficult. Nevertheless, the underlying narrative that the US administration appears intent on conveying is clear: once the midterm elections scheduled for 3 November are over, a concrete window of opportunity will reopen for a renewed attack on Iran, with Israeli support. This would leave Tehran with fewer than two weeks to return to the negotiating table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran has long regarded these threats as credible and appears to be preparing accordingly, having considered a resumption of hostilities almost inevitable for months. Such an outcome is seen as the natural consequence of the continuing impasse in relations with Washington and the unresolved issue of maritime security and freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paradoxically, however, the United States and Iran appear to hold markedly different views on the prospect of renewed conflict. For Washington, a negotiated settlement achieved from a position of strength is by far the preferable option, as it could avert another uncertain phase of hostilities that might once again fail to produce a decisive outcome, further damaging President Trump\u2019s public standing. For Iran, by contrast, only an agreement that fully meets its expectations appears acceptable\u2014one that would entail the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. From Tehran\u2019s perspective, a resumption of hostilities is therefore preferable to an unfavourable agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite their triumphant and defiant rhetoric, Iran\u2019s authorities are currently in an extremely fragile position, marked by a deepening economic crisis. According to The Wall Street Journal<\/em>, the country has exhausted its stocks of oil held by its so-called shadow fleet and destined for China<\/a>. At the same time, the prospect of a new wave of domestic protests remains ever-present. Against a broader perception of an impending existential threat, the available options are consequently narrowing to two: either an agreement that fully meets Iran\u2019s demands or a resumption of hostilities accompanied by a threat to the global economic system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States, too, has increasingly limited room for manoeuvre. A decision on whether to embark on a new military campaign against Iran is likely to be taken after the midterm elections, which are expected to produce an unfavourable outcome for Trump, potentially creating pressure on his administration to take action to restore the standing of his presidency. For Washington, however, the tangible risk remains that another phase of conflict will once again fail to resolve the underlying dispute, while further increasing the global economic costs of the confrontation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US\u2013Iran crisis thus remains not only unresolved but also far from offering any clear prospect of a way forward, whether through a negotiated agreement or an actual resumption of hostilities. Both sides remain firmly committed to visibly maximalist positions, shaped by the prolonged nature of the crisis and by their mutual perception that failure to achieve their stated objectives would carry disastrous political consequences. The resulting room for manoeuvre is extremely limited, severely constraining the scope for pragmatism. At present, both sides appear inclined to hold their ground and wait to see which will be forced to yield first under the pressure of economic or political crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This situation is not merely exhausting for the United States and Iran; it is also placing a growing burden on the international community as a whole. The latter must contend with the consequences of the disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and, potentially, with the combined effects of the concurrent crisis between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Together, these developments could produce a systemic shock through a substantial reduction in maritime traffic across the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, the prospect of a resumption of hostilities is becoming increasingly likely. Yet an equally plausible outcome is that renewed conflict will once again fail to bring the dispute between the two parties to a decisive conclusion, thereby prolonging the global economic crisis and entrenching regional instability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 22 October, President Trump once again raised the prospect of a new military escalation, stating during a meeting with journalists that \u201csomething will happen fairly soon\u201d. His remarks appeared to lend credence to information that had emerged in the preceding days regarding alleged preparations for a resumption of hostilities. Shortly afterwards, CBS heightened these […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4467,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"slim_seo":{"title":"The prospect of a new US\u2013Iran conflict re-emerges amid uncertain and ill-defined scenarios - IGS - Institute for Global Studies","description":"On 22 October, President Trump once again raised the prospect of a new military escalation, stating during a meeting with journalists that \u201c something will happ"},"_slim_seo_primary_term_category":60,"_slim_seo_primary_term_post_tag":74,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[74,183],"class_list":["post-4468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articolo-en","tag-iran-2","tag-us"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4468","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4468"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4468\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4469,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4468\/revisions\/4469"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4468"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4468"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalstudies.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4468"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}