From June 6-9, 2024, some 450 million people are invited to vote on the constitution of the only European Union (EU) body directly elected by citizens, the European Parliament (EP).
These elections are of particular significance because the new composition of the EP will influence the commitments the EU has set for itself in this legislative term to combat climate change. At risk is the future of the Green Deal – it commits the EU to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 – since it has yet to be translated into concrete measures.
It will affect commitments because the EP primarily performs three functions. It shares legislative power with the Council of the European Union (a body made up of ministers from the various member countries). It does not hold the power of legislative initiative, only pre-initiative power, because the only body that holds executive power in the EU is the European Commission (EC).
The EP, in fact, has the power both to urge the EC to take the legislative initiative, and to discuss, amend and approve proposals submitted by the Commission.
Also with the Council, it shares budgetary power: it can, therefore, modify EU expenditures.
Finally, the EP also exercises democratic control over all EU institutions, bodies, and organs, particularly the EC. In fact, it is the EP that elects, based on the results of the elections (whereby the choice usually falls to the members of the most represented political group within the EP) and on the proposal of the European Council (the institution that sets the EU’s overall political priorities and guidelines), the new president of the EC, it approves or rejects the appointment of European commissioners, and it can censure the Commission.
However, the EP currently consists of 705 MEPs who have been elected by direct universal suffrage every five years since 1979. With this new legislature, the EP’s seats will increase to 720, to reflect the changing demographics of the member countries. In fact, the number of members of the EP is divided approximately proportional to the population of each. Approximately because MEPs are elected according to the criteria of degressive proportionality: a country cannot have fewer than 6 and more than 96 MEPs.
MEPs meet in political groups: they are composed of a minimum number of 23 parliamentarians; they must represent at least a quarter of the member countries; and they are organized not by nationality but by political affinity.
There are currently 7 officially recognized political groups. Group of the European People’s Party (EPP): to date the largest, conservative-liberal inspired, brings together center-right parties – in Italy it is represented by Forza Italia. Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D): is the second largest group, with a socialist and labor background – the Democratic Party is in it. Renew Europe Group (RE): liberal and centrist in outlook – consists of members of Azione and Italia Viva. Group of Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA): environmentalist and ecologist leaning, it is close to the left. European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR): promotes conservative and nationalist values – made up on the Italian side by Fratelli d’Italia. Identity and Democracy Group (ID): embodies an ideology that can be described as more right-wing than the ECR – the League is a member. The Left Group (GUE/NGL): embodies radical leftist and anti-capitalist values.
Finally, there is the Non-attached (NI) group: this includes MEPs who have not joined any organized political group-as an Italian party, there is the 5 Star Movement.
From the laws passed in the last legislature, it can be seen that although the extreme wings (both left and right) of the EP often voted against the climate policies proposed in the EU; the centrist pole-along with the Greens – was the biggest supporter of the green transition.
This is because on climate issues, the ECR and ID groups have an eco-skeptical stance, while the GUE/NGL very often believes that climate actions are unambitious. EPP, S&D, Renew and the Greens generally support them. For NI, on the other hand, it can be seen that the votes were quite different, precisely because of the heterogeneous nature of the aforementioned political group.
However, it is no coincidence that, with the exception of the Greens, the parties most supportive of climate policies are the same parties that support the Von der Leyen Commission and voted for its election.
Source: Europe Elects
Looking at the February projections of Europe Elects (produces monthly reports on the European elections), it can be seen that the next legislature will again see the EPP as the first party and the S&D as the second. Of notable significance, however, is the fact that ID and ECR will overtake Renew in the polls and that especially G/EFA will lose as many as 25 seats.
According to Eurobarometer-conducts a series of polls on behalf of the EC-this lower sensitivity to climate commitments is due to the costs of climate action. In the sense that although a large majority of Europeans say there is a need for more ambitious action to combat climate change, a majority of them are concerned about its costs.
This eco-skeptical sentiment has intensified especially in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine. In fact, it can be seen that during this period, climate-unfriendly governments have come into office in many member countries, and that the regulations passed for the Green Deal-over all nature, agriculture, and biodiversity-related initiatives-are significantly less ambitious than the commitments established at the time it was passed (January 2020).
This is also reflected in the electoral programs of the various political groups with which they will stand in the June elections. In fact, the only group that still gives a wide berth to climate issues within its program, the G/EFA, is declining in its projections. Then, the first potential political group, the EPP, is coming to the current election with an election program characterized by the near absence of environmental policy-presented only from the perspective of economic competition-despite having been one of the leading advocates of the Green Deal. This change in trajectory can also be seen in Renew, which in fact has returned to its historic liberal roots, with a marked focus on the EU single market. Going against the trend is the program of the potential second political group, S&D, as it promotes a Green Social Deal concept that places social policy and workers’ rights at the center of a “no-holds-barred” green transition. The election programs of the other political groups (ID, ECR, GUE/NGL) have not yet been presented, but they are expected to remain in line with the trend of the last legislature.
Thus, while the EU’s overall vision of the Green Deal remains intact, being supported by more than two dozen laws already passed, with the new composition of the EP there is a risk, given the climate disengagement evident in the various election programs, that EU climate action will become less ambitious in precisely the decisive years for limiting the impacts of climate change.
